|
|
|
The Abstract
|
|
> Edited by Torie Ludwin, Arnold Ventures (AV)
|
An intense debate over how to extend expiring provisions in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) hinges on whether Congress projects deficit impacts relative to the traditional "current law" baseline — where certain tax breaks expire as written — or makes a mid-stream switch to a "current policy" baseline, which assumes indefinite extensions.
The latter conveniently obscures the true fiscal impact, hiding trillions in higher deficits simply by assuming them away. By treating temporary provisions as permanent, lawmakers sidestep critical decisions about how to pay for extending them, thereby worsening the deficit.
As AV Vice President of Public Finance Andrew Moylan writes, this questionable approach undermines efforts to reduce waste in federal spending and exacerbates the national debt.
With the TCJA’s provisions set to expire, Congress must confront these realities to protect the federal budget’s long-term stability and ensure an honest fiscal debate.
Read Andrew Moylan’s column on the budget baseline debate>
Read AV Executive Vice President for Public Finance George Callas’ response to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other advocates for Magic Math in the House budget resolution>
Read Bipartisan Policy Center’s primer on budget baselines> |
|
|
|
Q&A: Shifting Payment Models
|
|
|
This week as health leaders are coming together for Health Care Value Week to explore new ways to improve physician reimbursement and continue movement toward alternative payment models, AV asked Natalie Davis, CEO of United States of Care; Ann Greiner, president & CEO of the Primary Care Collaborative; and Sophia Tripoli, senior director of health policy at Families USA to share their thoughts and insights on where payment reform is heading, and what it means for patients, physicians, and the system as a whole.
Read our Q&A>
|
|
|
|
|
|
Public Finance
- Erica York and Garrett Watson of the Tax Foundation analyze the potential fiscal and economic impacts of making the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent.
- Howard Gleckman writes in Forbes that extending the 2017 tax cuts will cost more than $4 trillion regardless of the accounting method used, which would exacerbate existing structural deficits and lead to massive increases in the national debt.
- Annie Shuppy and Zach Moller of Third Way outline four promising proposals to combat waste, fraud, and abuse in government programs, emphasizing the need for smarter oversight and enforcement.
- "With its enhanced technology and lending capabilities, a stronger and reimagined Small Business Administration (SBA) may be on the horizon," writes AV’s Program Integrity Fellow Doug Criscitello in his Forbes column, who sees necessity as the driver in SBA's modernization.
Health Care
- NPR recently reported on several polls showing strong backing among Republican voters for federal price limits on drugs and hospital services, caps on patients' medical bills, and restrictions on how providers handle medical debt. The reporting included AV’s recent national poll, which found that a majority (51%) of voters say it is personally difficult for them to afford health care, up from 41% in 2021.
- During a recent panel at the Value-Based Payment Summit, AV’s Vice President of Health Care – Payor Reform Erica Socker discussed the challenges and possible solutions to address consolidation in health care, allowing more practices to remain independent. A key focus: policy changes like site neutrality and physician payment reforms that would help independent practices thrive. Healthcare Innovation Group provides a digest of the panel.
Criminal Justice
- Forbes reports that the Federal Bureau of Prisons (BOP) is cutting retention bonuses for prison staff as part of the wider campaign by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to slash costs. Given already severe understaffing levels, this action could further exacerbate the crisis in federal prisons.
- A wildcat strike by corrections staff members in New York who are protesting understaffing and dangerous conditions is continuing. Gothamist reports that state officials are trying to get staff back to work, while at the same time considering moving incarcerated people to facilities in other states until the dispute is resolved.
Higher Education
- The St. Louis-based 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals sided with 7 Republican-led states that challenged the Education Department’s generous income-driven repayment plan, known as the Saving on a Valuable Education (SAVE) Plan.
|
|
|
|
|
|
- On Thursday, March 6, from noon to 2 p.m. ET, join AV for "Why Nothing Works: A Conversation with Marc J. Dunkelman and former U.S. Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo" at Officina in Washington, D.C. Moderated by Charlie Anderson, AV's EVP of infrastructure, Dunkelman and Raimondo will explore the forces that have hindered progress in America and examine solutions for moving forward. The event will include lunch. Registration has closed for the event.
- On Wednesday, March 12, from 11:30 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. at the Mayflower Hotel Washington, D.C., as part of the Association for Education and Finance Policy (AEFP) conference, the AV Evidence and Evaluation team will host an inaugural Innovation Day, bringing together researchers and policymakers to explore areas of common interest and potential new avenues of research.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Every year, the WNBA's Seattle Storm honors four amazing women for being changemakers in their communities. KING5 in Seattle sits down to talk with each of the "Believe in Women" honorees. Watch the interview or read a transcription.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Were you sent this briefing by a friend? Sign up here to get the AV Newsletter.
|
|
|
|
You received this message because you signed up for Arnold Ventures' newsletter.
|
|
|
|
|
|
Copyright 2025 3 Columbus Circle, New York NY 10019
|
|
|
|
|
