Long-Term Impacts of KIPP Charter Middle Schools on Four-Year College Enrollment and Persistence, Based on Analysis of Two Randomized Controlled Trials

Grantee: Mathematica. The full report on the study findings is linked here.

Description of the Intervention: This was a study of the long-term impacts of KIPP middle schools on four-year college enrollment and persistence. KIPP is a national nonprofit network of college-preparatory, public charter schools that serve nearly 120,000 of predominantly low-income and minority students. KIPP’s goal is to help students develop the knowledge, skills, and character strengths they need to succeed throughout their education and into adulthood. KIPP elementary and middle schools have been found in large, well-conducted randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to produce sizable gains in student reading and math achievement two to three years after random assignment, as summarized here.

Study Design: This was a pooled analysis of two RCTs carried out at a total of 21 oversubscribed KIPP middle schools that used randomized lotteries to which students would be offered admission. The schools were located in eight U.S. states and the District of Columbia. The combined study sample included 2,070 students who participated in a lottery for fifth- or sixth-grade admission in the 2008 – 2009, 2009– 2010, or 2011 – 2012 school year. 48% of sample members were Hispanic, 42% were Black, 62% came from families with annual incomes of less than $35,000, and 43% spoke a language other than English at home. Both RCTs have previously reported positive findings on reading and math achievement two to three years after study entry.

With support from Arnold Ventures, the study authors conducted a long-term analysis examining the impacts on enrollment and persistence in four-year colleges, using administrative data from the National Student Clearinghouse. At the time of this follow-up (11−14 years after random assignment), all students were old enough to have potentially completed at least their third year of college.

Impact on the Primary Outcomes: The study found that students who won a KIPP middle school admissions lottery were 4 percentage points more likely to enroll in a four-year college than students who lost the lottery (51.4% of lottery winners enrolled vs. 47.6% of lottery losers). We view this finding as suggestive but not strong evidence of an effect because it was not statistically significant (p=0.12). The study found no effect on college persistence – i.e., the percent of students who were enrolled in a four-year college for six consecutive semesters following their scheduled high school graduation (23.8% of lottery winners vs. 23.2% of lottery losers). These effects of winning a KIPP lottery and being offered admission (i.e., the​“intention-to-treat” effects) are the primary study findings based on the researchers’ pre-registered analysis plan ¹.

Study Quality: Based on a careful review, we believe this RCT evaluation of KIPP’s impacts on college enrollment and persistence was well-conducted and produced valid findings ².